Former CIA Officer Mike Baker on Afghanistan Withdrawal

Episode Summary

Main Topics Discussed

• Senate Armed Services Committee Hearings: Discussion centered on recent hearings regarding the Afghanistan withdrawal, featuring Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, CENTCOM Commander General McKenzie, and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Milley.
• Military Advice vs. Presidential Decision: The testimony of senior military leaders confirmed they advised President Biden to maintain a minimum troop presence of 2,500 in Afghanistan, contrasting with President Biden's claim of not recalling such advice.
• Political Theater in Washington D.C.: The hearings were characterized as a "sh*t show" and "theater," with senators acting surprised by events despite having been privy to intelligence.
• The Doha Agreement: The 2020 agreement between the Trump administration and the Taliban was discussed, specifically its seven conditions which the Taliban largely failed to meet, yet the withdrawal proceeded.
• Reasons for Rapid Collapse: Analysis of why the Afghan government and military collapsed so quickly, citing the removal of U.S. advisors and air support, and a long-standing understanding within the military that collapse was likely.
• Equipment Left Behind: The significant amount of U.S. military equipment (hundreds of millions of dollars worth, including Black Hawks, night vision, and small arms) abandoned in Afghanistan.

Key Insights & Memorable Moments

• The startling disconnect between top military advisors confirming they advised a 2,500-troop presence and President Biden stating, "I don't recall being told any of that."
• The speaker's palpable frustration with politicians during the hearings who acted surprised by the rapid collapse, despite having been "privy to all sorts of intelligence" for years.
• President Biden's desire "to have it both ways" – taking credit for the withdrawal while simultaneously blaming the previous administration's Doha agreement for necessitating it.
• Revelation that the Doha agreement was highly conditional on the Taliban meeting specific terms (which they failed to do), meaning the May withdrawal date should have been pushed further.
• The long-term degradation of U.S. intelligence on the ground due to the removal of advisors from Afghan units, leading to an inability to gauge the true state of the Afghan military.
• General Milley's precise wording that he "never saw any assessment that said that the government would collapse in 11 days," highlighting a classic Washington maneuver to deflect responsibility while acknowledging broader predictions of collapse.

Notable Quotes or Revelations

• Senior Military Leaders (Austin, McKenzie, Milley): "all to the last one said yes, we were advising the president that our advice is to maintain a small troop presence, a minimum of 2,500 troops right in Afghanistan."
• President Biden: "I don't recall being told any of that."
• The speaker on the hearings: "it's just on one hand it's very depressing, it's just a sh*t show."
• Revelation about Doha Agreement: There were "seven conditions placed on the Taliban for this agreement to go forward," which they never met, implying the U.S. was not obligated to withdraw by the May deadline.
• General Milley (on collapse speed): "no we never saw any assessment that said that the government would collapse in 11 days," a specific denial that avoids contradicting broader predictions of eventual collapse.
• Observation on Afghanistan's history: "it's been widely known forever that Afghanistan is insane like it's impossible to manage."

Overall Themes

• Political Expediency Over Strategic Reality: The decision to withdraw was largely political, overriding military advice and seemingly ignoring the intelligence on the ground.
• Lack of Accountability and Transparency: The hearings highlighted a profound lack of accountability from politicians and a perceived obfuscation of facts, particularly regarding the President's recollection of advice.
• Failed Nation-Building and Historical Repetition: The episode underscored the long-standing flaws in the U.S. mission to build a stable, democratic government in Afghanistan, drawing parallels to previous failed occupations (e.g., the Soviets) and the "fatalistic" nature of intervention there.
• The Cost of Withdrawal: Not just in human lives, but in immense material resources left behind and the swift resurgence of the Taliban, questioning the efficacy and planning of the final withdrawal phase.